Models for forecasting births in dairy cattle systems in Cuba
Abstract
In order to obtain models for birthing forecasting that permit the adoption of decisions in the control of reproduction in dairy cattle systems, based on the information playback files livestock sub-delegation of the Ministry of Agriculture in Camagüey for the dairy companies Camagüey-Jimaguayú, the variables (reproductive categories, females detected in oestrus) with lags in relation to birth were used in a multiple regression analysis step by step. Three models were obtained using lagged variables with nine, ten and twelve months of delay. The data from three livestock enterprises in the province of Ciego de Avila (2003-2005) were used to validate the model: Birth = 0669* Total of females detected in oestrus (9) + 0.278 * post partum cows (12) with an R = 83.7. There was a similarity in the monthly average, total and 2 individual prediction estimation or standardized errors. The major proportion of the errors value of was classified as good (small), which can confirm the fitting or generalization of the model to new cases. The results confirm that the achieved models could be a valuable tool for planning campaigns and developing breeding schemes for milk production.
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References
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